Friday, February 19, 2010

Lining Up the New-Look Cavaliers

As you may have read by now, the Cleveland Cavaliers have acquired PF Antawn (pronounced Antwan) Jamison from the Washington Wizards in exchange for a draft pick and the expiring contract of long-tenured C Zydrunas Ilkauskas. This opens the door to a few questions regarding the Cavs rotations in the short term, as well as if/when Z returns to the Cavs 30 days post-buyout.

My immediate issues were on display last night against the Denver Nuggets. While I'm not terribly worried about the loss - aside from Lebron's continuing tendency to force bad 3s late in the game like he's a kid counting down the buzzer in his driveway - I am a bit concerned about Shaq's minutes in the wake of shipping out his primary back-up. This season Shaq is averaging around 20 minutes a game with he and Z (at 15-18 mins/game) basically splitting the minutes one sub-35 year-old center would log. Andy took up the remainder when the Cavs would switch to a small-ball line-up generally featuring James at the 4.

Yesterday Shaq logged 30 minutes on the first night of a back to back as Mike Brown played Andy heavy minutes at the 4 next to Shaq and didn't have anyone else on the roster to give the Big Freeze some rest. This is not acceptable. Regular season wins are nice, but not if they mean wearing down Shaq before the playoffs. Boston and San Antonio are falling apart because they need to rely on their older players for heavy minutes and most of their scoring. We do not want to fall into that same trap.

The addition of Jamison (hopefully for tonight's game against Charlotte) should alleviate the need to play Andy next to Shaq and allow him to primarily back up Witness Protection at the 5. Jamison's numbers have dipped in recent months, however, since he's had to take over much of the scoring load for the Wizards. It'd be nice to ease him into the line-up, and the system, to make sure he's fully fueled and ready for the playoffs. As such I'd be in favor of bringing the former 6th Man of the Year off the bench for the first few games and allowing J.J. to retain his starting position and continue his development.

In these coming Z-less weeks my ideal starting line-up would be:

1- Mo Williams
2- Anthony Parker
3- Lebron James
4- J.J. Hickson
5- Shaquille O'Neal

Mo looked a bit shaky last night, but that's to be expected with his time off. Later in the game as he shook off some rust he still showed the ability to hit the 3. As he works back into game shape the Cavs will once again benefit from his ability to both spot-up and drive; to create his own shot and to work off of Lebron James. He's a player opponents certainly have to game-plan for and he's also a player that can make teams pay dearly for doubling James and/or Shaq.

If we had last year's version of Delonte West he'd be my no-brainer choice as starter but he's still showing quite a bit of tentativeness on the court and his legal troubles are still looming. There's no point in getting used to a player as a starter when he's guaranteed to face suspension some time this season. Anthony Parker has come on as quite a defender with excellent size and drive. He puts in a lot of effort on defense and is able to bother/hold back opposing teams scoring guards with much effectiveness. He's also the 4th leading 3-point shooter in the league, though his +15 +/- rating in last night's game was likely more because of his defense than his scoring.

In first quarters Hickson has proved to be an excellent foil for Lebron and Shaq. While he still exhibits stone hands now and again and again he has a knack for cutting to open space on offense and quite frankly is one of the team's best players when moving without the ball. Andy consistently scoring off of back cuts has clearly rubbed off on J.J. He still has a lot to learn regarding defense and rebounding, and he needs to build confidence in his 10-15 foot jumper but he's very dangerous on offense when the Cavs have so many other consistent weapons that teams have to focus on.

In this scenario I have Andy coming in solely as a center backing up the Shaquisition. Until we have another center on our roster I would be perfectly fine with Andy never playing another minute at power forward. The Cavs now have unbelievable depth at the PF position (Hickson, Jamison, DJax, Jawario) but only one and a half centers.

Jamison would be coming off the bench and I think his game would work really well with Andy. He generally gets the ball between 15 feet and the three point line (much like Z did) and shoots or creates from there while Wild Thing sets up around the rim or cuts to the paint. Jawario at the 3, Gibson at the 2 and West at the 1 makes for a solid, if a bit undersized, second unit.

In the event Z returns I'd have the same starting line-up on the court, but obviously the relief rotations change. Superman and Z could resume splitting 35-40 minutes with Andy picking up the rest. Things get interesting at the PF position in this situation since Jamison and Andy provide very different looks alongside Z, although Brown hinted once the Cavs completed the trade that he'd be open to experimenting with a gigantic line-up featuring Jamison at small forward. Boobie and Brother Red would still be the first two guards off the bench as West really pushes the ball up the court and is a very good passer while Gibson is the second best 3-point shooter in the league.

In the playoffs I wouldn't be surprised to see J.J. completely disappear from the rotation, replaced in the starting line-up with Jamison. A.J. has a lot of playoff experience (mostly centered around losing to the Cavs...) and his ability to create his own shot and score from outside the paint will be critical once teams tighten up their defense in the post-season. Assuming Z is back, Andy will likely take the balance of minutes at the 4 with Jawad maybe getting some minutes in cases of foul trouble since his defense is better than Hickson's.

We'll see soon enough what Powe can give after half a season of rehabbing from microfracture surgery. He has playoff experience as well, plays good D and rebounds well so if he comes back he gives the Cavs even more options. Until we see him on the court, however, there's no telling how he can contribute. Good money has him returning in time to play the Celtics this week.

Let the salivating begin.

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