As there are still two weeks left in the regular season (and seeding for all but the top two spots in the East are very much still in flux) it might be premature to start talking playoffs. However it's a fact that the Cavs have locked up a playoff berth, have clinched the Central Division and have reduced the magic numbers for clinching the top spot the East and in the whole league to the low single digits.
The Cavs are playoff-bound and are likely to head into the post-season with the top seed in the East so it's useful (and fun!) to think about some issues and decisions the team will face beyond April 17th, regardless of what teams they play.
You're riding the pine pony, pal
Benches are always shorter in the playoffs, even for the deepest team in the league. Mike Brown will have a lot of decisions to make when dividing minutes in the post-season.
I'm guessing Brown sticks with a starting line-up of Mo Williams, Anthony Parker, Lebron James, Antawn Jamison and J.J. Hickson in the first round (with Shaq still out for injury). Though both Andy and Z have playoff (even Finals) experience Brown rightfully prefers Andy's energy off the bench and the Cavs benefit when Z and Andy play together. Their styles mesh well and the pair have spent Andy's entire career building on-court chemistry. Once Shaq fully comes back - easing in limited minutes in the first round, hopefully returning to start in the second round - I expect J.J.'s minutes to disappear.
Conventional wisdom says that a playoff rotation consists of eight players playing heavy, consistent minutes. That's three players in addition to starters. Looking at the line-up this way the spare minutes would go to Delonte West, Anderson Varejao and Big Z. West provides absolutely necessary ball-handling, a good outside shot and excellent on-ball defense. Not to mention he was the only person not named Lebron James who fearlessly challenged the Magic on offense every game in last year's playoff exit. Wild Thing is a no-brainer with the team's second highest +/- providing energy, "intagibles," and the best pick and roll defense of any Cavalier big man. Z provides veteran experience, much-needed size and an outside shot that lets the Cavs provide a very different look on offense and bring opposing defenders out of the paint.
I see your Schwartz is as big as mine
I don't expect Brown to give in to conventional wisdom, though. One of the Cavs' biggest advantages is the ability to shift from small to medium to big line-ups at will to counter strengths of opposing teams and exploit weaknesses. While there's no way we're going to see a 12-man team I think it's reasonable to expect a 9-man rotation with different players filling the role of that 9th man. Jamario Moon's ability to challenge the Magic with length on defense is a major reason why he was picked up in the first place. If Mo Williams wilts again in the post-season Daniel Gibson can be counted on to step up to the 3-point line with ice-water in his veins.
Danny Green, Jawad Williams, Leon Powe, Sebastian Telfair (obviously), and J.J. Hickson (once Shaq returns) will likely not see action except in the case of foul trouble with Green, Williams (or Powe) and Telfair watching most games from behind the bench in suits.
I find the one guy who's not getting off, and I make him get off
The biggest advantage the Cavs will have, obviously, is Lebron James. In addition to his amazing ability to just take over games is his penchant for going out of his way to get his teammates going early on in games. It's not unheard of for Lebron to score in the single digits through the first quarter - or the first half - and yet rack up assists in order to get teammates into rhythm. This allows the Cavs to break apart opposing defenses, and it allows the Cavs' shooter to build confidence for the moments when the Cavs need big shots late in games and Lebron is facing double or triple teams.
In the end we won't know for sure how the Cavs react to playoff pressures until the playoffs are upon us. What we do know is that the Cavs are better positioned to win a title this year than they have been ever before. The only team really positioned to challenge the team in the East is the Magic and the Orlando squad, in an effort to match up better with the Lakers, have given up most of the match up advantages against the Cavs, and the Lakers' bench has been inconsistent at best all season.
Lebron James has the best supporting cast he's ever had in his career so, in the words of Zydrunas Ilgauskas, "Let's just win this damn thing."
Thursday, April 1, 2010
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